On Sun, 24 May 2009 14:21:51 -0700, Mark Thorson wrote:

> peakoil wrote:
>>
>> Does anybody know, that according to some Oil Geologists (e.g. Colin
>> Campbell) in 2013 the world oil output is going to peak ? Are you
>> aware what this does mean for all of us ? We have 4 years from now,
>> until there will not be enough energy for travelling, heating and the
>
> Baloney. We don't fall off a cliff in 2013, as you imply,
> even if your statistics were correct. It's a very shallow
> and gradual peak. Also, it should be noted that estimates
> of recoverable petroleum seriously underestimate their
> size. Saudi Arabia won't allow exploration in certain areas
> because they don't want it to be known just how much they've
> got.

that may be, but i think that the saudis don't want people to know that
they have *less* oil than most people think.

In a new study soon to be released, Matthew R. Simmons, president of
Simmons and Company International, a specialized energy investment banking
firm, contends that this is not likely to happen. He argues that Saudi
Arabia's oil fields now are in decline, that the country will not be able
to satisfy the world's thirst for oil in coming years and that its capacity
will not climb much higher than its current capacity of 10mbd. Considering
the growth in demand, this could easily spark a global energy crisis.

Simmons analyzed 200 technical papers on Saudi reserves by the Society of
Petroleum Engineers and his work was peer reviewed by a dozen senior
technical experts. What he discovered tells a different story than the
conventional wisdom.

Saudi Arabia has over 300 recognized reservoirs but 90% of its oil comes
from the five super giant fields discovered between 1940 and 1965. Since
the 1970s there haven't been new discoveries of giant fields. The most
significant of the oil fields is Ghawar. Found in 1948, the 300-mile-long
sliver near the Persian Gulf is the world's largest oil field and accounts
for 55%-60% of all Saudi oil produced. Ghawar's current proven reserves are
12% of the world's total. The field produces 5 mbd, which is 6.25% of the
world's oil production. According to Simmons, Ghawar's northern regions are
almost depleted. Two other giant fields, Abqaiq and Berri, also seem to
have peaked in the 1970s.

<http://www.iags.org/n0331043.htm>

Aramco, the company in charge of Saudi oil operations, disputes Simmons
assertion and has debated him in public policy forums. But Simmons isn't
easily dismissed, as he's no anti-establishment crank. In addition to his
role as chief executive of a major energy-focused investment bank, which
counts Halliburton (HAL, news, msgs) and the World Bank among its clients,
hes a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and was an advisor to
President Bushs election campaign and Vice President Dick Cheneys infamous
energy task force.

<http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P87339.asp>

your pal,
blake