On 6/17/2013 2:07 AM, isw wrote:
> I just read a scary article "4 Easy Steps for Safe Summer Grilling"
> about how "dangerous" it is to grill meat at high temperature, to let
> grease drip and flare up, and on and on. Basically, the claim is that
> anything that makes the meat taste good is going to kill you.
>
> What was missing (as it is from nearly every article warning of the
> "danger" of doing something), was *just how dangerous is it?*
>
> Here's what I mean:
>
> For discussion, say the likelihood of contracting cancer *without*
> eating grilled food is one in ten million.
>
> Now, if eating some amount (how much?) of grilled food raises the risk
> to one in eight million, I'm still going to grill steaks and burgers
> whenever I want.
>
> But if the risk goes up to one in *a hundred*, I'm going to put my grill
> out on the curb and never cook anything that way again.
>
> Bottom line: without putting some numbers on the risk, the article is
> totally useless, except to scare people into doing things they may not
> need to do.
>
> So, does anybody know (with numbers):
>
> How much does the risk of cancer increase due to eating grilled meat?
>
> What is the relative risk between grilled meat once a day, once a week,
> once a month, ..?
>
> Isaac
Notice how the data is conflated between grilling and red meat consumption.
So are we avoiding "well done" meat?
OK. I am good with that - I much prefer medium rare.
Fried meat?
Not a problem, that's already limited in this household.
BBQ'd?
Nope. Not going to happen.
Red and processed?
Can we say conflation of discrete data points?
Why yes, yes we can.
These "studies" are NOT conclusive and are NOT limited to BBQ'd food
exclusively.
The "science" here is desperately lacking.
http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/f...k/cooked-meats
What evidence is there that HCAs and PAHs in cooked meats may increase
cancer risk?
Studies have shown that exposure to HCAs and PAHs can cause cancer in
animal models (6). In many experiments, rodents fed a diet supplemented
with HCAs developed tumors of the breast, colon, liver, skin, lung,
prostate, and other organs (7–12). Rodents fed PAHs also developed
cancers, including leukemia and tumors of the gastrointestinal tract and
lungs (13). However, the doses of HCAs and PAHs used in these studies
were very high—equivalent to thousands of times the doses that a person
would consume in a normal diet.
Population studies have not established a definitive link between HCA
and PAH exposure from cooked meats and cancer in humans. One difficulty
with conducting such studies is that it can be difficult to determine
the exact level of HCA and/or PAH exposure a person gets from cooked
meats. Although dietary questionnaires can provide good estimates, they
may not capture all the detail about cooking techniques that is
necessary to determine HCA and PAH exposure levels. In addition,
individual variation in the activity of enzymes that metabolize HCAs and
PAHs may result in exposure differences, even among people who ingest
(take in) the same amount of these compounds. Also, people may have been
exposed to PAHs from other environmental sources, such as pollution and
tobacco smoke.
Nevertheless, numerous epidemiologic studies have used detailed
questionnaires to examine participants’ meat consumption and meat
cooking methods to estimate HCA and PAH exposures. Researchers found
that high consumption of well-done, fried, or barbecued meats was
associated with increased risks of colorectal (14), pancreatic (15, 16),
and prostate (17, 18) cancer.
Do guidelines exist for the consumption of food containing HCAs and PAHs?
Currently, no Federal guidelines address the consumption of foods
containing HCAs and PAHs. The World Cancer Research Fund/American
Institute for Cancer Research issued a report in 2007 with dietary
guidelines that recommended limiting the consumption of red and
processed (including smoked) meats; however, no recommendations were
provided for HCA and PAH levels in meat (19).