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Mike 6/20/05

> Jim, I have to disagree with your generalization as well. By your logic
> a 1960s cake would sell for $50 or less. That is simply not accurate. I
> have seen 1960s Guang Yun Gong cakes sell for $800 and I have seen
> 1960s Red Label sell for $3,000 both of which were at legitimate
> auctions in China frequented by professional collectors, and these are
> NOT the extremes by any account. If someone offers you a 1960s cake for
> $50 you better look elsewhere!

On the other hand, Mike, if somebody offers Jim a 1960's cake for $50, it is
either a ruined 1960's cake -- which is quite possible, albeit improbable --
or something else entirely. If that something else entirely tastes damned
good and causes Jim to wonder for a moment whether it is indeed a 1960's
cake, then it's worth the 50 bucks, and all the more power to Jim and the
thief. (Does that make *any* sense at all?)
>
> In my limited experience the market value of puerh is based on several
> factors:
>
> 1) The factories reputation
> 2) The production recipe used
> 3) How well the cake was stored
> 4) The quality of production that year
> 5) The quantity of the crop in the given year
> 6) The reputation for that particular vintage/recipe.
> 7) Other factors such as limited edition batches etc
> 8) What the market will bear......

It would be fascinating to perform a *weighted* average calculation
on your list. I'd place 50% of the weight on eight.
>
>
> I would say that a high quality cake, that has proven to mature well,
> from a well known factory, in an average production year, will increase
> anywhere from 10% - 25% *per year* in the current market. Much of this
> value is due to the surging popularity of puerh in Hong Kong and Taiwan
> over the last 20 years, as well as the fact that well aged pu-erh has
> become a status symbol for the rapidly emerging Chinese middle Class.

Get yours NOW.

Michael