[Pork is STILL a great bargain, kids...let's hope it stays that way...!!!]

http://www.aledotimesrecord.com/arti...ounding%20.txt


Pork prices rebounding in 2008

By Tim Landis/GateHouse News Service
Published: Wednesday, June 4, 2008 9:18 AM CDT


"A farm economist who in January warned that 2008 could be the worst year
ever for the nation's hog farmers is calling a more than 65 percent increase
in pork prices since mid-March something of a "miracle."

Export demand, especially from China, a weak dollar that makes U.S. goods
less expensive overseas and perhaps consumers switching from higher-priced
beef have contributed to the turnaround, said Chris Hurt, who tracks the
industry for Purdue University.

"Pork producers know that pork has been cheap in the United States, but with
the rapid devaluation of the U.S. dollar, this makes pork doubly cheap to
some foreign buyers," Hurt said in response to e-mailed questions after
release of his latest forecast Monday.

He added that while many hog farmers might still lose money this year,
prices are at least nearing break-even.

Figures from the federal government showed U.S. pork exports were up 40
percent January through March compared to 2007. Exports to China nearly
tripled, while exports to Russia doubled, Korean purchases rose 27 percent,
and Japanese purchases were up 8 percent.

It was Hurt who in January forecast 2008 would be the worst year at least
since 1998 for American hog farmers as a result of a surplus of hogs,
falling pork prices and steadily rising feed prices linked to higher prices
for corn and soybeans.

But in his latest forecast, Hurt noted the current price of $58 per
hundredweight for pork compares to $35 in March. The $23 increase at a time
when pork prices traditionally go up is double the average in the last five
years.

Hurt said market speculators who appear to anticipate an increase in all
types of farm commodities also played a role.

While he has no scientific data to support it, Hurt said grocery shoppers
also might be switching from beef to pork.

He said retail beef prices averaged $4.17 per pound in April compared to
$2.86 for pork, or a difference of $1.31 per pound.

"On a 10-pound meat purchase, that's a saving of $13 and will buy enough
gasoline to get the family vehicle another 60 or 70 miles down the road," he
said.

Phil Borgic's family has operated a hog farm near Nokomis, about 60 miles
south of Springfield, Illinois, since 1956. Borgic said the rapid rebound in
prices probably would help keep some producers in business this year.

"The last seven weeks have been phenomenal," Borgic said, who also is
president of the Illinois Pork Producers Association.

He, too, cited export demand as the biggest factor.

"We just finished our 16th straight year of record exports. This year,
because of the devaluation of the dollar and other parts of the world have
been reducing their herds, we've been able to export about one in four
pigs," he said.

The president of Paragon Economics, an Iowa-based firm that specializes in
agricultural economics, said the rebound in pork prices in such a short time
has been one of the most dramatic in recent memory.

Steve Meyer said the surge in pork prices also illustrates the volatility of
all commodity markets, and that rising corn and fuel costs remain a threat
to hog farmers in particular.

"I still don't think we're through the worst of it. Hog prices are not
great, but they are not bad enough to cause a whole lot of problems," Meyer
said, adding that lower corn prices would be a big help.

No pork producer that I know of begrudges grain farmers a good price, but
they'd like to be subsidized by the blenders (ethanol) tax credit, too," he
said.

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