Including comments on imported beef from the US and Canada....

From my good friend, the SuperButcher.


1. Beef- It is going to get cheaper. Why?? The eastern seaboard of
Australia has just had the best rain in 10 years, nearly every part of the
country has had good rain and there will be plentiful grass everywhere and
cattle will be getting fat everywhere. Leading into winter cattle in NSW,
Tasmania, SA, Victoria and Southern Queensland start getting cold and stop
getting fat in fact they start to lose weight. So what we will see is many
farmers selling a lot of cattle between now until August while the cattle
are at their heaviest. With all of this “beef” coming to market the
abattoirs have to 2 ways to sell this beef. Either Overseas or in
Australia. 70% of the beef Australia producers is normally exported
however with the Australian Dollar at 90c to the US$ it is more expensive
for over seas countries to buy our beef even though it still costs the
same to us in Austra! lia. In simple terms it works like this. When our
Aussie Dollar was at 60 cents to the US$, people in the US could buy our
beef for (their) 60c when the Australian consumer had to pay our $1. Now
that the AUS$ is 90c, the US consumer has to pay 90c for the same piece of
Australian meat but it still costs us $1. That means over the last 18
months the price of beef to our export markets has risen 30% but is hasn’t
cost us in Australia anymore money and because of this Export customers
are buying less Australian beef and consequently a lot more Aussie beef
has come onto the domestic market. So what do you think is going to happen
when a tidal wave of beef starts coming onto the market in about 2 months
time??? That’s right, it is going to get cheap! A lot cheaper. All beef in
Australia at the moment is 99.9% Aussie with only a tiny amount of beef
coming in to Australia from our friends in NZ. For the record, our
Australian politicians would be crazy to let beef be imported from the US
and Canada into Australia, but that is an other story in itself. ( please
if you disagree with this comment, do not email me because what ever
argument you put up will not be good enough).

2. Lamb- It is going to stay the same price. (Which is at an
historically high price). Why?? In Australia during the 1980’s we had a
sheep flock of nearly 200 Million Sheep. Today the flock is down to 69
Million. That is a massive 130 Million Less sheep in Australia at the
moment.( I actually think the New Zealanders are coming over here,
marrying them and taking them back to NZ). Although the sheep producers
are more efficient today, we now have a lamb shortage and it is not going
to turn around any time in the near future. However, it is not going to
get any more expensive in the near term as I believe we have hit a price
ceiling in the market. What I mean by that is, the current higher prices
on the retail shelf has reduced demand. ( trust me I know). 2 years ago we
were able to sell whole Lambs at $80 each. Last Year it was $100 each and
we still sold plenty. Today, my BU! Y price from the Farmer is $130- $140
per Lamb, thus we are selling less so demand has dropped. Same as beef,
99.9% of Lamb in Australia with only a tiny amount from NZ.

3. Chicken- It is going to get cheaper/stay the same price. Isn’t it
interesting, A whole Roast Chicken in the 1950’s,60’s and 70’s was the
meal for a special occasion. It was THE Sunday roast, the meal to have
when you wanted to treat the family. Lamb and Mutton during that period of
time was the Cheap mans food. Today the roles have reversed. With the more
intensive farming of chicken and the efficiencies they have made with
weight gain over the past 30 years, Chicken has become the cheap meat, the
“meat” you can afford everyday. The good news is, chicken has become a
little cheaper over the last 12 months and it will not be rising any time
soon. The highest cost to growing a chicken is the price of grain that the
chicken eats and with all of the rain, the crops! will be growing faster
than Jacks beanstalk. This will mean there will be an abundance of grain,
prices will fall, and the price to grow a chicken will fall with it. In
comparison to other countries our Chicken prices are quite expensive ( it
is 50% cheaper in America) however Chicken is not allowed to be imported
so unlike the Pork Industry it is 100% Australian.

4. Pork.- Stay the same price, or fall slightly. 1st of all let me say
it is so sad to see what happened to the pork industry over the last 10
years. Australia started to import cheap Canadian, USA and Danish pork
about 10 years ago and it decimated the industry. 80% of Pig farmers went
broke and the price of Australian pork has risen significantly over the
last 3 years. Why?? Imported pork can only come into Australia to certain
smallgoods companies and it must be cooked immediately for the use of
Bacon, Ham and smallgoods. All fresh pork sold in Australia must come from
Australian Pork. What happened is, when the imported Pork came into
Australia small goods companies could buy pork 50% cheaper from overseas.
Thus the price of pork in Australia plummeted about 5 years ago when
Australian farmers had to drop there price so that the Smallgoods
companies would still buy it. They all! started losing money, and
eventually 1 by 1 they kept closing until there was not many left. Then 2
years ago the pendulum swung the other way, we had too many pig farmers
close and we then had a shortage of fresh pork and prices rose
significantly. In 2010 the pig farmers that are left are making good money
again and they are starting to expand their herds. I think we will see an
increase in supply over the next 1-2 years and we will see a slight easing
in pork prices. Again, grain is the major cost in growing a pig and with
lower grain prices we will see lower pork prices. All (raw) Fresh Pork
sold in Australia is 100% Aussie.

5. Bacon, Ham and Smallgoods- Cheap, Cheap, Cheap!! Our Aussie Dollar
is trading at 90c to the US$ this is at an historically high value. That
means all items that are imported are cheaper for Australia to buy. Today,
90% of all boneless smallgoods consumed in Australia are from Danish, USA
or Canadian Pork. If you do not want to buy imported pork, buy your Ham
and bacon from the small boutique companies such as Beenleigh Bacon or
Gotzinger smallgoods. Over the next 2 months we are going to expand our
range of Australian made ( from Aussie Pork) smallgoods by about 300% so
we will give you plenty to choose from.


--
Peter Lucas
Brisbane
Australia

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Rod Out back > wrote in
:

> On Sun, 07 Mar 2010 15:08:10 GMT, PLucas
> > wrote:
>
>>Including comments on imported beef from the US and Canada....
>>
>>From my good friend, the SuperButcher.
>
> <<Snip>>
>
>> 2. Lamb- It is going to stay the same price. (Which is at an
>>historically high price). Why?? In Australia during the 1980’s we had a
>>sheep flock of nearly 200 Million Sheep. Today the flock is down to 69
>>Million. That is a massive 130 Million Less sheep in Australia at the
>>moment.( I actually think the New Zealanders are coming over here,
>>marrying them and taking them back to NZ). Although the sheep producers
>>are more efficient today, we now have a lamb shortage and it is not
>>going to turn around any time in the near future. However, it is not
>>going to get any more expensive in the near term as I believe we have
>>hit a price ceiling in the market. What I mean by that is, the current
>>higher prices on the retail shelf has reduced demand. ( trust me I
>>know). 2 years ago we were able to sell whole Lambs at $80 each. Last
>>Year it was $100 each and we still sold plenty. Today, my BU! Y price
>>from the Farmer is $130- $140 per Lamb, thus we are selling less so
>>demand has dropped. Same as beef, 99.9% of Lamb in Australia with only a
>>tiny amount from NZ.
>
> I doubt this. I'd expect the price of lamb to rise even further.


At the end of the day, I don't like lamb, so I don't care if it does :-)

So long as the beef, pork, chicken etc either stay the same, or drop, I'll
be happy.

I'll leave the lamb lovers to whinge about rising prices ;-)





--
Peter Lucas
Brisbane
Australia

Killfile all Google Groups posters.........

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