Gee, go figure, when costs go up, businesses close...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst...-minimum-wage/

Some time back I wrote a piece entitled €œWe can predict the effects of
Seattles $15 an hour minimum wage.€� Its here. And without going into
boring detail it essentially said that wed see what we would expect to
see from a rise in the price of something, that is a fall in the demand
for it. Ever since Ive had comments from people insisting that human
labor just doesnt work that way. That if wages rise then actually more
people are going to get employed. An example came in only this morning:

Between January and December of 2014, while Seatacs business owners
(and their customers) were absorbing the cost of paying minimum wage
employees $15, unemployment decreased 17.46%, falling from 6.3% to 5.2%.
It turns out that you CAN increase the minimum wage (even in large
increments) and increase overall employment at the same time.

However, we are seeing changes in the rather larger case of Seattle
itself, as I predicted we would:

Though none of our local departing/transitioning restaurateurs who
announced their plans last month have elaborated on the issue, another
major factor affecting restaurant futures in our city is the impending
minimum wage hike to $15 per hour. Starting April 1, all businesses must
begin to phase in the wage increase: Small employers have seven years to
pay all employees at least $15 hourly; large employers (with 500 or more
employees) have three.
Since the legislation was announced last summer, The Seattle Times and
Eater have reported extensively on restaurant owners many concerns
about how to compensate for the extra funds that will now be required
for labor: They may need to raise menu prices, source poorer
ingredients, reduce operating hours, reduce their labor and/or more.

Washington Restaurant Associations Anton puts it this way: €œIts not a
political problem; its a math problem.€�

Restaurants are closing at higher than normal rates. And Seattle is
already a fairly high wage place:

Regarding amount of labor, at 14 employees, a Washington restaurant
already averages three fewer workers than the national restaurant
average (17 employees).

As Don Boudreaux likes to point out one of the reasons we dont see
large job losses (as opposed to small ones) from rises in the minimum
wage is because weve had a minimum wage for a long time and have
already lost a lot of jobs as a result.

And theres more such reporting going on too:

As the implementation date for Seattles strict $15 per hour minimum
wage law approaches, the city is experiencing a rising trend in
restaurant closures. The tough new law goes into effect April 1st. The
closings have occurred across the city, from Grub in the upscale Queen
Anne Hill neighborhood, to Little Uncle in gritty Pioneer Square, to the
Boat Street Cafe on Western Avenue near the waterfront.

The shut-downs have idled dozens of low-wage workers, the very people
advocates say the wage law is supposed to help. Instead of delivering
the promised €œliving wage€� of $15 an hour, economic realities created by
the new law have dropped the hourly wage for these workers to zero.

Advocates of a high minimum wage said businesses would simply pay the
mandated wage out of profits, raising earnings for workers. Restaurants
operate on thin margins, though, with average profits of 4% or less, and
the business is highly competitive.

Human labor really is an economic good like pretty much all of the
others. Raise the price and the demand for it will drop (another way of
putting this is that human labor is not a Giffen Good). Please do note
though what is the prediction. Not that theres going to be a wiping out
of employment opportunities, nor that the economy of Seattle is going to
become a howling wasteland. Rather, that less human labor will be
employed at $15 an hour than would have been employed if the minimum
wage had not risen to that amount. And for people who would like to have
a job but now cannot find one thats bad news.

On 04/08/2015 11:03 AM, Japhy Ryder wrote:
>
> Gee, go figure, when costs go up, businesses close...
>
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst...-minimum-wage/
>
>
CRAP!!!! *Others are predicting the opposite.*
One resto has increased its prices but has stopped tipping. Think about
it: many decent restos suggest 15-20% as a tip. That adds a hulluva lot
to the bill for competent service. Increase the wages and remove the
tipping and you still pay the same amount. If you get lousy service,
complain.
Graham

On 8/4/2015 11:27 AM, graham wrote:
> On 04/08/2015 11:03 AM, Japhy Ryder wrote:
>>
>> Gee, go figure, when costs go up, businesses close...
>>
>> http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst...-minimum-wage/
>>
>>
>>
> CRAP!!!! *Others are predicting the opposite.*

I'm not intereted in predictions, I'm interested in the actuals:

http://www.westernjournalism.com/15-...s-close-doors/

Earlier this month, Seattle Magazine asked, Why Are So Many Seattle
Restaurants Closing Lately?:

Last month€”and particularly last week€” Seattle foodies were downcast as
the blows kept coming: Queen Annes Grub closed February 15. Pioneer
Squares Little Uncle shut down February 25. Shaniks Meeru Dhalwala
announced that it will close March 21. Renée Ericksons Boat Street Café
will shutter May 30 after 17 years with her at the helm€¦What the #*%&$*
is going on? A variety of things, probably€”and a good chance there is
more change to come.
The magazine went on to report that one €œmajor factor affecting
restaurant futures in our city is the impending minimum wage hike.€�
Anthony Anton, president and CEO of Washington Restaurant Association,
told the magazine, €œIts not a political problem; its a math problem.€�
He estimates that restaurants usually have a budget breakdown of about
36 percent for labor, 30 percent for food costs, and 30 percent to cover
other operational costs. That leaves 4 percent for a profit margin. When
labor costs shoot up to say 42 percent, something has to give.


> One resto has increased its prices but has stopped tipping. Think about
> it: many decent restos suggest 15-20% as a tip. That adds a hulluva lot
> to the bill for competent service. Increase the wages and remove the
> tipping and you still pay the same amount. If you get lousy service,
> complain.
> Graham


Are you daft?!?!?
This is NOT about tipping, which should be a constant regardless of
wage scale.

This is about increasing labor costs independent of any reduction in
other fixed costs, period.

Grow a brain, please!

http://www.seattlemag.com/article/wh...closing-lately

And for Seattle restaurateurs recently, there is also another key
consideration. Though none of our local departing/transitioning
restaurateurs who announced their plans last month have mentioned this
as an issue*, another major factor affecting restaurant futures in our
city is the impending minimum wage hike to $15 per hour. Starting April
1, all businesses must begin to phase in the wage increase: Small
employers have seven years to pay all employees at least $15 hourly;
large employers (with 500 or more employees) have three.

Since the legislation was announced last summer, The Seattle Times and
Eater have reported extensively on restaurant owners many concerns
about how to compensate for the extra funds that will now be required
for labor: They may need to raise menu prices, source poorer
ingredients, reduce operating hours, reduce their labor and/or more.

Washington Restaurant Association's Anton puts it this way: €œIts not a
political problem; its a math problem.€�

He estimates that a common budget breakdown among sustaining Seattle
restaurants so far has been the following: 36 percent of funds are
devoted to labor, 30 percent to food costs and 30 percent go to
everything else (all other operational costs). The remaining 4 percent
has been the profit margin, and as a result, in a $700,000 restaurant,
he estimates that the average restauranteur in Seattle has been making
$28,000 a year.

With the minimum wage spike, however, he says that if restaurant owners
made no changes, the labor cost in quick service restaurants would rise
to 42 percent and in full service restaurants to 47 percent.

€œEveryone is looking at the model right now, asking how do we do math?€�
he says. €œEvery operator Im talking to is in panic mode, trying to
figure out what the new world will look like.€� Regarding amount of
labor, at 14 employees, a Washington restaurant already averages three
fewer workers than the national restaurant average (17 employees). Anton
anticipates customers will definitely be tested with new menu prices and
more. €œSeattle is the first city in this thing and everyones watching,
asking how is this going to change?€�

On Tuesday, August 4, 2015 at 10:04:16 AM UTC-7, Japhy Ryder wrote:
> Gee, go figure, when costs go up, businesses close...
>
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst...-minimum-wage/
>
> Some time back I wrote a piece entitled "We can predict the effects of
> Seattle's $15 an hour minimum wage." It's here. And without going into
> boring detail it essentially said that we'd see what we would expect to
> see from a rise in the price of something, that is a fall in the demand
> for it. Ever since I've had comments from people insisting that human
> labor just doesn't work that way. That if wages rise then actually more
> people are going to get employed. An example came in only this morning:

This article was written in March. Where are the articles written after
the higher minimum wage law went into effect.

I could find evidence only of one restaurant closing as a result of
the higher minimum wage: the franchised zpizza on Capitol Hill.

On 8/4/2015 12:06 PM, wrote:
> On Tuesday, August 4, 2015 at 10:04:16 AM UTC-7, Japhy Ryder wrote:
>> Gee, go figure, when costs go up, businesses close...
>>
>> http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst...-minimum-wage/
>>
>> Some time back I wrote a piece entitled "We can predict the effects of
>> Seattle's $15 an hour minimum wage." It's here. And without going into
>> boring detail it essentially said that we'd see what we would expect to
>> see from a rise in the price of something, that is a fall in the demand
>> for it. Ever since I've had comments from people insisting that human
>> labor just doesn't work that way. That if wages rise then actually more
>> people are going to get employed. An example came in only this morning:
>
> This article was written in March. Where are the articles written after
> the higher minimum wage law went into effect.
>
> I could find evidence only of one restaurant closing as a result of
> the higher minimum wage: the franchised zpizza on Capitol Hill.

Costs are real and must be passed on to consumers if restaurants want to
stay open:

http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/...r-minimum-wage

Hardy says he is making adjustments: trimming staff hours, opening one
hour later and closing one hour earlier. He's also considering whether
to close some hours during the day.

"I'm going through the hourly sales, and if it is not making money, if
it is not profitable, we are not going to do it, because we can't afford
to," he says.

Hardy is a small employer, so he has a few years to figure out what to
do. The $15 wage will be phased in at different rates for different size
employers over the course of several years.

The biggest pressures will be on large employers, who reach $15 an hour
sooner. They are the ones now making the most dramatic changes.

Bob Donegan, the president of Ivar's, which runs a chain of fish and
chip shops, says the company has increased its prices. At Ivar's Salmon
House, for instance, one of the company's sit-down restaurants, the
price for all menu items increased 21 percent in April.

"Alaska coho that's today $34, last week would have been $28," Donegan
says. "So that meal that last year cost you $100, today costs you $121."

The catch is that when diners pay the bill, they are no longer expected
to leave a tip: it's included. The big price increase will allow the
Salmon House to start paying a $15-an-hour minimum wage immediately,
three years ahead of schedule.

"If you have to pay $15 an hour in 20 months, and that is the largest
part of your expenses, it's a little difficult to do a business plan
that makes that work," Burnham says. "I tried. Before I made my decision
I tried, and I didn't see it happening."

Burnham says she didn't want to go back to working 60 or 80 hours weeks,
as she did when she first opened the restaurant, just to make ends meet.
So she is shutting down her business at the end of the summer.

It is conceivable that more restaurant owners will follow in Burnham's
footsteps. Even Seattle's best-known chef, Tom Douglas, says he may have
to close some of his 15 restaurants.

Douglas is raising menu prices 4 percent this year.

"I really don't know what your saturation point is for what you're
willing to pay for chicken," he says. "That's why I say I don't know. We
are going to have to wait and see. I don't know if it is worth it for
you to come to our restaurants when chicken is $30 a portion compared
with when it was $20 a portion."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015...s-follow-suit/

Some long-time Seattle restaurants have closed altogether, though none
of the owners publicly blamed the minimum wage law.

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2015/07/25...ng-out-for-ya/

Some long-time Seattle restaurants have closed altogether, though none
of the owners publicly blamed the minimum wage law.

“It’s what happens when the government imposes a restriction on the
labor market that normally wouldn’t be there, and marginal businesses
get hit the hardest, and usually those are small, neighborhood
businesses,” said Paul Guppy, of the Washington Policy Center.

The law of unintended consequences is a bitch, ain’t it?

On 8/5/2015 3:27 AM, graham wrote:
Running for the White House, Jeb Bush portrays himself as a man who has
"worked his tail off" to get ahead in life. But in his business
dealings€”which involved such diverse fields as real estate, credit card
services, and water pumps€”the candidate seemed to benefit from his
father's political power and worked with people who turned out to be
criminals, the Washington Post reports. Bush's business outlook in his
early years was "a little bit of damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead,"
says a professor who wrote about him. "His judgment on who to associate
with is lacking." Unlike his father and brother George, who each made
fortunes as young men, Jeb jumped from one business venture to another,
at times with unsavory characters.

When Jeb's dad was vice-president, Jeb lobbied the federal government
for the owner of a Miami health-maintenance organization who was later
charged with $200 million in Medicare fraud and fled the US. I

On 8/5/2015 3:03 AM, Japhy Ryder wrote:
Barbara J. Llorente FRAUD!

Barbara J Llorente 71 Cerritos Ave San Francisco, CA 94127.
Age 65 (Born 1950) (415) 239-7248. Background Check - Available. Record
ID: 47846596.

Your ass has more mass than Jupiter!

No one cares about you.

Get OUT!


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On 8/5/2015 4:06 AM, wrote:
Fourteen hundred years ago Islam gave women rights; rights that could
not have been imagined by European counterparts. Bold words! Words
that have been spoken repeatedly, especially in the last two or three
decades by Muslim converts, and Islamic writers, academics and educators
across the globe. Women’s rights, responsibilities, and choices have
been the subject of books, articles, essays, and lectures. Sadly
however, convincing the world that Muslim women are not oppressed by
Islam is a message that is just not getting through. Media headlines
scream oppression and the words Muslim, women, and oppression seem to
have become inextricably linked.

No matter what Muslim women do or say to try to convince the world
otherwise, words like hijab, burka, polygamy, and Sharia seem to do
little but convince people that Islam oppresses women. Even educated,
articulate women fulfilling the modest conditions of hijab can do little
to dispel the myths. Women who conduct themselves with decorum and
grace and function effortlessly in the modern world have their
achievements and successes celebrated. However, if a woman wears a
scarf, covers her hair or puts her religion above worldly pursuits she
is immediately labelled oppressed. One wonders if this is the case for
women of other religious persuasions