Jim, I have to disagree with your generalization as well. By your logic
a 1960s cake would sell for $50 or less. That is simply not accurate. I
have seen 1960s Guang Yun Gong cakes sell for $800 and I have seen
1960s Red Label sell for $3,000 both of which were at legitimate
auctions in China frequented by professional collectors, and these are
NOT the extremes by any account. If someone offers you a 1960s cake for
$50 you better look elsewhere!

In my limited experience the market value of puerh is based on several
factors:

1) The factories reputation
2) The production recipe used
3) How well the cake was stored
4) The quality of production that year
5) The quantity of the crop in the given year
6) The reputation for that particular vintage/recipe.
7) Other factors such as limited edition batches etc
8) What the market will bear......


I would say that a high quality cake, that has proven to mature well,
from a well known factory, in an average production year, will increase
anywhere from 10% - 25% *per year* in the current market. Much of this
value is due to the surging popularity of puerh in Hong Kong and Taiwan
over the last 20 years, as well as the fact that well aged pu-erh has
become a status symbol for the rapidly emerging Chinese middle Class.

Mike
http://www.pu-erh.net


Space Cowboy wrote:
> TaoBao sells mid nineties Menghai for $30. In general you add a buck a
> year to the original price for each year of aging. The really
> expensive pu on TaoBao is from limited production and not aging. If
> you pay more than penny/gram for pu'rh then caveat emptor. Then is
> still plenty of Xiaguan Millennium 100g green tuocha in Chinatown for a
> buck.
>
> Jim
>
> Mike Petro wrote:
> > Renny wrote:
> > >If you buy one of my pots I send you a cake of good quality
> > > "green" Menghai Puer that is suitable for investment. That means that
> > > if properly stored it will be worth 200-400 dollars (at current
> > > American market prices) in 2-4 years. If you can keep from drinking it
> > > that long. It will be pretty good tea in a year or two.
> >
> > Renny, now it is you who is spreading misinformation. There is now way
> > that a 2-4 year old green cake of authentic Menghai, yes I know there
> > are many fakes, would sell for $200-$400 here. There *may* be a few
> > vendors dishonest enough to try to do that but they are clearly ripping
> > people off. I do not know where you are getting your "American Market
> > Prices" from but you are being misled if this is what you believe.
> >
> > Your information on teapots is much more believable and in line with
> > what I have learned from other sources. What is your website address
> > please?
> >
> > Sincerely,
> > Mike Petro

TaoBao is a market place where you can check prices in the current
Chinese economy. I've been doing that since I found it. All I'm
saying you can find plenty of 10 year pu for $30. Most 2004 300g beeng
I've seen is just $10. You can find prices more expensive than you
quote but nothing more than limited availability. If I'm in China and
show the appreciation you mention then I'm done sitting in front of the
penny stock exhange investing in my retirement because the government
won't take care of me anymore. I think to pretend that there is any
real market for aged pu is misinformation. The high pricing is based
on limited collectors and not demand. I haven't seen any of the big
ticket items on TaoBao sell. You know pu produced before the modern
production process in the early seventies is the demand and not the
age. I've come across Chinese webpages translated by Google and it
seems the accounts of prices at auction are inflated ie it's like
Christie's the minimum bid isn't met. I do my own collecting of
several genre and the real collector doesn't pay the asking price and
doesn't resell. In other words there is little profit in collecting.
I expect to get my money back with a small profit but the possession is
more important than the profit. From what I've seen Pu investment is
the Chinese version of the Beanie Baby. I think the new wealth of
China is investing in nostalgia with something different tomorrow.

Jim

Mike Petro wrote:
> Jim, I have to disagree with your generalization as well. By your logic
> a 1960s cake would sell for $50 or less. That is simply not accurate. I
> have seen 1960s Guang Yun Gong cakes sell for $800 and I have seen
> 1960s Red Label sell for $3,000 both of which were at legitimate
> auctions in China frequented by professional collectors, and these are
> NOT the extremes by any account. If someone offers you a 1960s cake for
> $50 you better look elsewhere!
>
> In my limited experience the market value of puerh is based on several
> factors:
>
> 1) The factories reputation
> 2) The production recipe used
> 3) How well the cake was stored
> 4) The quality of production that year
> 5) The quantity of the crop in the given year
> 6) The reputation for that particular vintage/recipe.
> 7) Other factors such as limited edition batches etc
> 8) What the market will bear......
>
>
> I would say that a high quality cake, that has proven to mature well,
> from a well known factory, in an average production year, will increase
> anywhere from 10% - 25% *per year* in the current market. Much of this
> value is due to the surging popularity of puerh in Hong Kong and Taiwan
> over the last 20 years, as well as the fact that well aged pu-erh has
> become a status symbol for the rapidly emerging Chinese middle Class.
>
> Mike
> http://www.pu-erh.net
>
>
> Space Cowboy wrote:
> > TaoBao sells mid nineties Menghai for $30. In general you add a buck a
> > year to the original price for each year of aging. The really
> > expensive pu on TaoBao is from limited production and not aging. If
> > you pay more than penny/gram for pu'rh then caveat emptor. Then is
> > still plenty of Xiaguan Millennium 100g green tuocha in Chinatown for a
> > buck.
> >
> > Jim
> >
> > Mike Petro wrote:
> > > Renny wrote:
> > > >If you buy one of my pots I send you a cake of good quality
> > > > "green" Menghai Puer that is suitable for investment. That means that
> > > > if properly stored it will be worth 200-400 dollars (at current
> > > > American market prices) in 2-4 years. If you can keep from drinking it
> > > > that long. It will be pretty good tea in a year or two.
> > >
> > > Renny, now it is you who is spreading misinformation. There is now way
> > > that a 2-4 year old green cake of authentic Menghai, yes I know there
> > > are many fakes, would sell for $200-$400 here. There *may* be a few
> > > vendors dishonest enough to try to do that but they are clearly ripping
> > > people off. I do not know where you are getting your "American Market
> > > Prices" from but you are being misled if this is what you believe.
> > >
> > > Your information on teapots is much more believable and in line with
> > > what I have learned from other sources. What is your website address
> > > please?
> > >
> > > Sincerely,
> > > Mike Petro

Space Cowboy wrote:
> TaoBao is a market place where you can check prices in the current
> Chinese economy. I've been doing that since I found it. All I'm
> saying you can find plenty of 10 year pu for $30.

TaoBao appears quite similar to our Ebay, as in buyer beware because
the sellers may or may not be reputable and the goods may or may not be
authentic. I would not trust their goods any more than I would trust
somebody on Ebay, and Ebay is rife with scam artists especially when
dealing in antique goods (such as aged puerh). Yes there are good
dealers there but one would need to know the culture really well before
venturing into those waters.

> I think to pretend that there is any
> real market for aged pu is misinformation. The high pricing is based
> on limited collectors and not demand.

Nobody is "pretending" Jim, it is a fact that I have personally
confirmed many times over. To say that it is misinformation would be
like saying that a "wine collector's market" in the USA is also
misinformation. The two genres are extremely similar in their
respective cultures, both in popularity and in fanaticism. Many people
in China boast about their puerh collections, and it is quite true that
few of them will ever really sell, only the speculators and those in
need of cash actually sell. It is common for a guest to be shown this
collection, although most Western guests fail to realize the pride that
their host is really exhibiting. The high demand is further
demonstrated by that fact that wholesale prices for young Puerh have
tripled this year compared to the same time last year. This has been
attributed to a bad growing season AND higher than ever demand. The
existance of so many forgeries also substantiates the demand, if there
were no demand there would be no market for forgeries. Finally let us
not forget the laws of supply and demand, the reality is that the
demand exceeds the supply hence the high prices.

>I haven't seen any of the big ticket items on TaoBao sell.

The main reason is that very few Chinese collectors will buy a cake
without first seeing, smelling, and tasting it. To try a tea before you
buy is definitely the custom in China, collectors will often bring
their own teas to brew and compare to the prospective purchase as a
means of authenticating it. So why would they buy an aged cake site
unseen? It is like asking to get ripped off.

Mike Petro
http://www.pu-erh.net

Mike is absolutely right. Don't expect to see good prices for authentic
puer going into the future. The rest of China has discovered puer, and
there are high prices being asked in Bejing and Shanghai now, where as
in the past, demand had been limited in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and
Guangzhou. There are numberous buyers trying to buy up all of the
available puer stores. The Chinese universally agree that puer is a
good investment. There is plenty enough fraud involved in this market
and there has been since the end of the cultural revolution when having
destroyed most old cakes, a thriving market in old puer emerged. Since
the government was the major puer producer, and still is by the way,
the corruption was supported by the law in Yunnan, where it was illegal
to publish a date on any puer on the market. Buyer beware indeed.
People who are collectors do thier homework, and there are recognized
dealers that offer verification of date. This verification is only
valid within a couple of years one way or the other, and involves
examination of the cake, color, smell, and taste. Color, taste, and
smell can not be faked. What the market will bare is the rule. There
are plenty of people that will spend high prices and never blink an eye
about it. The good news is that standards have been established for
puer now, and you don't have to be an expert to sort through these, and
that newly produced puer is very good. It takes about 5 or 6 years for
raw puer to darken and mellow, but there are plenty of people that
enjoy it young, green, and a little bit bitter. Puer is certainly an
obsession, and one that I must admit to having too. If you see some
cheap puer laying around in some store somewhere, and it is still
cheap, I'd recommend buying it up and hang on to it.
I wanted to say also that the assertion that it is healther to brew tea
in one way or another is bizzarre. There is an enormous amount of
research being carried out in the US alone with extremely positive
results. The tea is donated and is not really worth drinking and those
folks doing the testing have never even heard of Yixing.

Here is a search string for Guang Yun Gong on TaoBao:

http://216.239.39.104/translate_c?hl...nd-0-all-0.htm

You have to enter Simplified characters and not Unicode for search
strings so it isn't as easy as it looks. Plus TaoBao only searches the
title and not description.

As of this post you will see 70's Guang Yun Gong for $20. You will see
a tong like bundle from 1980 for $110. What was your 60's price again,
something like $800. You pay alot for those blemishes. I'll stick
with fair market value and you buy from the collectors. If every
potential serious buyer wants a sample then eventually there is nothing
to sell. I think the wine analogy is essentially false because it is
ultimately consumed. The bottle and cork might be worth something.
One on my collection genres extends to the 1900s. Thank goodness you
can't eat or drink it. I can tell you haven't done any serious
collecting except paying too much for your tea. You're on the outside
looking in. High prices are simply for the gullible. No serious
collector will tell you what he paid for anything. You'll never get
your money back if you buy at auction. For insurance purposes I'm much
further ahead if my house burns down.

Jim

Mike Petro wrote:
> Space Cowboy wrote:
> > TaoBao is a market place where you can check prices in the current
> > Chinese economy. I've been doing that since I found it. All I'm
> > saying you can find plenty of 10 year pu for $30.
>
> TaoBao appears quite similar to our Ebay, as in buyer beware because
> the sellers may or may not be reputable and the goods may or may not be
> authentic. I would not trust their goods any more than I would trust
> somebody on Ebay, and Ebay is rife with scam artists especially when
> dealing in antique goods (such as aged puerh). Yes there are good
> dealers there but one would need to know the culture really well before
> venturing into those waters.
>
> > I think to pretend that there is any
> > real market for aged pu is misinformation. The high pricing is based
> > on limited collectors and not demand.
>
> Nobody is "pretending" Jim, it is a fact that I have personally
> confirmed many times over. To say that it is misinformation would be
> like saying that a "wine collector's market" in the USA is also
> misinformation. The two genres are extremely similar in their
> respective cultures, both in popularity and in fanaticism. Many people
> in China boast about their puerh collections, and it is quite true that
> few of them will ever really sell, only the speculators and those in
> need of cash actually sell. It is common for a guest to be shown this
> collection, although most Western guests fail to realize the pride that
> their host is really exhibiting. The high demand is further
> demonstrated by that fact that wholesale prices for young Puerh have
> tripled this year compared to the same time last year. This has been
> attributed to a bad growing season AND higher than ever demand. The
> existance of so many forgeries also substantiates the demand, if there
> were no demand there would be no market for forgeries. Finally let us
> not forget the laws of supply and demand, the reality is that the
> demand exceeds the supply hence the high prices.
>
> >I haven't seen any of the big ticket items on TaoBao sell.
>
> The main reason is that very few Chinese collectors will buy a cake
> without first seeing, smelling, and tasting it. To try a tea before you
> buy is definitely the custom in China, collectors will often bring
> their own teas to brew and compare to the prospective purchase as a
> means of authenticating it. So why would they buy an aged cake site
> unseen? It is like asking to get ripped off.
>
> Mike Petro

Jim,

I looked at the page you mentioned without using that translating
things as I do not need them.
The thing i would like to say is : on the same page there is one guang
yun gong bing from the "80's" selling for 880 rmb ($106) , this isn't
the price for a bundle like you mentionned but for 1 beeng cha and then
down on the page another guang yun gong bing from the "70's" that sells
for $20. Desn' t that raised any questions to your mind?

[Jim]
I'll stick with fair market value and you buy from the collectors.

[Jing]
This example isn't what the fair market value is. There is no such
thing as a guang yun from the 70's at $20, not in China.

For the one from the 80's, the price of 880 rmb is more accurate even
though it is too expensive for this particular item as the seller do
not mention if it is 1981 or 1989.

Real pu erh collectors are certainly the most accurate sources for aged
pu erh.

Jing

I'll agree there is a price discrepancy in the two posts. However the
80's post didn't mention a gram weight but did show a bundle of some
sort or individual bamboo wrapping for one beeng which I haven't seen
before maybe indicative of old style. If the 80's was a bundle then
pricing is reduced. Only the title mentioned "80's" but the
description "Year: 80 ages" so it remains if inclusive or not. The
"Pu'er tea merchant" is one of the biggest dealers on TaoBao. I'd buy
from him if I knew how. It could be the 70's was legitimate and priced
seemingly low for whatever reason. You find alot of 'distress' sales
online. I need the 'translating things' but the pricing and selection
comes across loud and clear.

Jim

SEb wrote:
> Jim,
>
> I looked at the page you mentioned without using that translating
> things as I do not need them.
> The thing i would like to say is : on the same page there is one guang
> yun gong bing from the "80's" selling for 880 rmb ($106) , this isn't
> the price for a bundle like you mentionned but for 1 beeng cha and then
> down on the page another guang yun gong bing from the "70's" that sells
> for $20. Desn' t that raised any questions to your mind?
>
> [Jim]
> I'll stick with fair market value and you buy from the collectors.
>
> [Jing]
> This example isn't what the fair market value is. There is no such
> thing as a guang yun from the 70's at $20, not in China.
>
> For the one from the 80's, the price of 880 rmb is more accurate even
> though it is too expensive for this particular item as the seller do
> not mention if it is 1981 or 1989.
>
> Real pu erh collectors are certainly the most accurate sources for aged
> pu erh.
>
> Jing

On 20 Jun 2005 16:25:16 -0700, "Space Cowboy" >
wrote:

>Here is a search string for Guang Yun Gong on TaoBao:
>
>http://216.239.39.104/translate_c?hl...nd-0-all-0.htm

Jim that is no more reliable than doing a search on Ebay, you have to
take the results with a grain of salt, it is NOT a true representation
of the actual market. Once again, NO serious collector would buy an
aged cake site unseen, these guys are catering to the uninitiated! I
would not buy antique puerh from this site any more than I would buy
Swarovski crystal from Ebay.

>As of this post you will see 70's Guang Yun Gong for $20. You will see
>a tong like bundle from 1980 for $110. What was your 60's price again,
>something like $800. You pay alot for those blemishes. I'll stick
>with fair market value and you buy from the collectors. If every
>potential serious buyer wants a sample then eventually there is nothing
>to sell. I think the wine analogy is essentially false because it is
>ultimately consumed. The bottle and cork might be worth something.
>One on my collection genres extends to the 1900s. Thank goodness you
>can't eat or drink it. I can tell you haven't done any serious
>collecting except paying too much for your tea. You're on the outside
>looking in. High prices are simply for the gullible. No serious
>collector will tell you what he paid for anything. You'll never get
>your money back if you buy at auction. For insurance purposes I'm much
>further ahead if my house burns down.

Once again you resort to unsubstantiated jabs, innuendo, and insults
rather than debating actual conditions. The only reason I even bother
responding to you anymore is because you are spreading misinformation.

I rest my case on the facts and my reputation.

Ciao

Mike Petro
http://www.pu-erh.net
"In this work, when it shall be found that much is omitted, let it not be forgotten that much likewise is performed."
Samuel Johnson, 1775, upon finishing his dictionary.

You're the one spreading misinformation about aged pu pricing. You
won't see anything on TaoBao in the 90's or over $50 and the 80's for
over a $100. I'll let you know when something from the 60's shows up.
All you are describing is a hot market for speculators and not
collectors. Tea bricks of all types in Chinese homes is an heirloom
and not for sale or consumption. TaoBao has it share of presentation
wedding boxes.

Jim

Mike Petro wrote:
....I delete me and you...
> Once again you resort to unsubstantiated jabs, innuendo, and insults
> rather than debating actual conditions. The only reason I even bother
> responding to you anymore is because you are spreading misinformation.
>
> I rest my case on the facts and my reputation.
>
> Ciao
>
> Mike Petro

Jim, 3 different people who live in or travel to China extensively have
now concurred that TaBao is NOT representative of the actual market in
China. You are basing your assumptions on false and/or misleading data.


I guess EVERYBODY else is just wrong and you are the only one who knows
the truth, just like a year ago when you chastised me for buying from
online Chinese vendors because you were certain that Chinatown
Apothecaries were the ONLY place to buy authentic puerh. Where are you
buying your puerh now, the very same places I do because even your
Chinatown sources eventually told you to? It seems like you just want
to disagree with anything I say, if I said the sun was shining you
would argue the point. Why don't you go back to talking about stale
Department Store Tea where you are at least experienced enough to speak
with first hand knowledge.

Mike


Space Cowboy wrote:
> You're the one spreading misinformation about aged pu pricing. You
> won't see anything on TaoBao in the 90's or over $50 and the 80's for
> over a $100. I'll let you know when something from the 60's shows up.
> All you are describing is a hot market for speculators and not
> collectors. Tea bricks of all types in Chinese homes is an heirloom
> and not for sale or consumption. TaoBao has it share of presentation
> wedding boxes.
>
> Jim

Mike 6/20/05


> Jim, I have to disagree with your generalization as well. By your logic
> a 1960s cake would sell for $50 or less. That is simply not accurate. I
> have seen 1960s Guang Yun Gong cakes sell for $800 and I have seen
> 1960s Red Label sell for $3,000 both of which were at legitimate
> auctions in China frequented by professional collectors, and these are
> NOT the extremes by any account. If someone offers you a 1960s cake for
> $50 you better look elsewhere!

On the other hand, Mike, if somebody offers Jim a 1960's cake for $50, it is
either a ruined 1960's cake -- which is quite possible, albeit improbable --
or something else entirely. If that something else entirely tastes damned
good and causes Jim to wonder for a moment whether it is indeed a 1960's
cake, then it's worth the 50 bucks, and all the more power to Jim and the
thief. (Does that make *any* sense at all?)
>
> In my limited experience the market value of puerh is based on several
> factors:
>
> 1) The factories reputation
> 2) The production recipe used
> 3) How well the cake was stored
> 4) The quality of production that year
> 5) The quantity of the crop in the given year
> 6) The reputation for that particular vintage/recipe.
> 7) Other factors such as limited edition batches etc
> 8) What the market will bear......

It would be fascinating to perform a *weighted* average calculation
on your list. I'd place 50% of the weight on eight.
>
>
> I would say that a high quality cake, that has proven to mature well,
> from a well known factory, in an average production year, will increase
> anywhere from 10% - 25% *per year* in the current market. Much of this
> value is due to the surging popularity of puerh in Hong Kong and Taiwan
> over the last 20 years, as well as the fact that well aged pu-erh has
> become a status symbol for the rapidly emerging Chinese middle Class.

Get yours NOW.

Michael

[Mike Petro]
>> In my limited experience the market value of puerh is based on several
>> factors:
>>
>> 1) The factories reputation
>> 2) The production recipe used
>> 3) How well the cake was stored
>> 4) The quality of production that year
>> 5) The quantity of the crop in the given year
>> 6) The reputation for that particular vintage/recipe.
>> 7) Other factors such as limited edition batches etc
>> 8) What the market will bear......

[Michael Plant]
>It would be fascinating to perform a *weighted* average calculation
>on your list. I'd place 50% of the weight on eight.

[Mike Petro]
In the USA market I would agree with you. In the better Eastern shops
the first 7 carry a lot more weight than they do here.
Mike Petro
http://www.pu-erh.net
"In this work, when it shall be found that much is omitted, let it not be forgotten that much likewise is performed."
Samuel Johnson, 1775, upon finishing his dictionary.