I hope this isn't a significant wine producing area

Guinea-Bissau: Beyond Rule of the Gun
Africa Briefing N°61
25 June 2009


The assassinations of the chief of defence staff, General Batista Tagme Na
Wai, on 1 March 2009 and President Joao Bernardo Nino Vieira early the next
day have plunged Guinea-Bissau into deep uncertainty. National Assembly
Speaker Raimundo Pereira was quickly sworn in as interim president pending
the election the constitution requires. That the killings occurred only
months after the acclaimed November parliamentary elections, however,
indicates that, in current circumstances, the democratic process cannot cope
with the rule of the gun, as well as the extent to which the military's use
of force has overwhelmed state institutions. Without outside help to end
military involvement in politics and impunity, it may be impossible to halt
a slide into further violence. Elites need to stand up to the military, but
they require support. The international community should work for an
international or hybrid commission of inquiry into the killings. Security
system reform needs to be improved by better international coordination and
creation of a national commission with enhanced autonomy.

The situation further deteriorated when, in the early hours of 5 June, a
presidential candidate and former minister was shot dead in his home, and a
few hours later another former minister was also shot dead, along with a
bodyguard and driver, while motoring into Bissau. The authorities claimed
that they were resisting arrest for their part in a coup plot, for which
former Prime Minister Faustino Imbali was taken into custody.

The precise motives remain unknown, but both the March and June killings
have credibly been linked to deep mistrust among the political-military
elites. The commission of inquiry established to investigate the March
killings is likely to be fatally weakened by lack of political will to
uncover the truth and widespread fear of intimidation and retaliation.
Without international involvement, it is highly unlikely that the true
culprits will be identified. This reflects the inability of the justice
system to counter impunity and deal with the widespread criminality linked
to drug trafficking that has engulfed the country.

Since the return to multi-party rule in 1994, no president has successfully
completed the constitutionally-mandated five-year term. General Tagme is the
third chief of defence staff to be assassinated in nine years. Although the
violence pre-dates the surge of organised drug trafficking in the region,
the possibility of huge illicit riches has increased the stakes in the power
struggle, leading to a vicious cycle of criminality and political
instability, the beginnings of which are visible not only in Guinea-Bissau
but also in neighbouring Guinea. Recent events point to increasing
factionalism in the military, which could pose a serious challenge to
current efforts to reform the army.
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